If you like to follow historical trends I checked the soybean oil markets back to 2001 and all but one(2007) showed a bump in the market this time of the year followed by a drop in pricing. The timing of the drop varied from year to year. That's the positive about this market, if you believe in trends.
Much of the upside to the market is being driven by International news. According to the DTN, 23 Russian regions have declared a state of emergency saying extreme heat had killed 1/5th of the areas sown with grains. Corn in the Ukraine is now heading through pollination, and not faring much better. Overall production was thought to be 80 million tons, recently dialed down to 70 million metric tons. China continues to gobble up more beans. In fact, in general the surplus in South America continues to get absorbed by what China wants. Additionally wheat is helping corn and soybeans reach their current highs because of worries over world levels of wheat production. In the EU wheat prices have reached new contract highs, and the CBOT values have followed. The dollar has weakened in the last couple weeks against the Euro.
To quote a posted comment on the DTN, "We're encouraged that the [soybean] market continues to move higher, however, we all know that the bean market can rapidly fall apart. Therefore, with what appears to be a very good looking crop on hand and as long as crop ratings remain high, be prepared to reward this rally. If behind on sales, make catch-up sales. We believe the market is poised to rapidly fall apart if weather changes elsewhere in the world and liquidation occurs." There are several others that may be of interest at DTN The Progressive Farmer.
Bottom line is the U.S. crop is one of the best in years. Europe and Russia are struggling with dry weather. Over the next month weather can play either a positive or negative role in either of these areas.
The Canadian Canola Oil crop is suffering further losses from hail storms. Harvest should start next month, that's when we will get a better handle on estimated final production numbers.