- Soybean exports are expected to decrease by 7.7%
- Poultry, hog, and dairy herds will lead to an increased consumption of soybean meal
- Increases in domestic consumption of soybean oil will come from biodiesel
- Ending stocks this year will be at a 4-year high
- The U.S. average farm price for soybeans in 2010/11 is projected by USDA at $8.00-$9.50 per bushel. This would be the lowest in 4 years and down from $9.50 per bushel in 2009/10. Lower demand for soybean meal will depress its value, as well. The >season-average price for soybean meal is forecast to drop to $230-$270 per short ton from $295 in 2009/10. In contrast, there will be more support for soybean oil prices because of rising domestic use and petroleum costs. The 2010/11 average price for soybean oil is forecast at 34-38 cents per pound--not too different from the 2009/10 average of 36 cents. If realized, soybean oil’s share in the total processing value for soybeans would increase.
As of May 9, 30 percent of U.S. soybean acreage had been sown, compared to the 5-year average of 19 percent and 13 percent in 2009.
The U.S. canola crop in 2010 is projected to be 1.73 million pounds, up sharply from 1.47 million in 2009. Increases in planted area (up 49 percent) more than offset a 19-percent decline in the expected yield, which is based on a 5-year average. Higher production should boost domestic canola crush and exports.
However, a forecast rebound in canola imports could swell 2010/11 ending stocks to 350 million pounds from 147 million pounds in 2009/10. Even so, U.S. canola prices may stay near last year’s season average of $16.10 per hundredweight (cwt) with a tightening of supplies in Canada. Forward cash prices in Velva, North Dakota were recently $15.67/cwt for September 2010 delivery and $16.19 for December/January delivery.